2026 offseason snapshot
SB Window
Super Bowl window view of active QB cap, dead QB money, roster runway, and the 13% closed line.
Since the cap began in 1994, Steve Young is the barely-over-13 marker at 13.08%. Patrick Mahomes is the only QB to win far past the line, with 17.19% in 2022 and 16.52% in 2023.
Super Bowl 60 Champion
Seattle Seahawks
Sam Darnold at 12.58% QB burden
Salary Cap
$301.2M
2026 model
Open
18
Under 10%
Caution
6
10-13%
Closed
8
13%+
Mahomes Only
2
Wins above 16%
Top SB Windows
Score includes last season's result, cap burden, coach, runway, QB production#1DENBo Nix
14-3, Sean Payton
98
Wide Open
#2NEDrake Maye
14-3, Mike Vrabel
97
Wide Open
#3CHICaleb Williams
11-6, Ben Johnson
83
Wide Open
#4HOUC.J. Stroud
12-5, DeMeco Ryans
83
Wide Open
#5SFBrock Purdy
12-5, Kyle Shanahan
79
Open
#6SEASam Darnold
14-3, Mike Macdonald
76
Closing
Closed QB Burdens
13%+MIAMalik Willis
$73.1M QB burden, $67.4M dead QB money
Malik Willis is the active QB. Tua Tagovailoa is not on Miami, but his post-June 1 dead money still counts against the Dolphins cap and window.
LARMatthew Stafford
$48.3M QB burden
CINJoe Burrow
$48.0M QB burden
LACJustin Herbert
$46.3M QB burden
CLEDeshaun Watson
$45.0M QB burden
BUFJosh Allen
$44.2M QB burden
DALDak Prescott
$43.5M QB burden
TBBaker Mayfield
$40.0M QB burden
Full Rankings
QB burden = active QB cap + dead QB cap; percentages use each season's cap
| RK | Team | QB Room | Record | QB Burden | 2026 % | 2027 % | 2028 % | Zone | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DEN | Bo Nix | 14-3 | $5.1M | 1.69% | 2.3% | 7.6% | Wide Open | 98 |
| 2 | NE | Drake Maye | 14-3 | $10.0M | 3.32% | 3.4% | 7.6% | Wide Open | 97 |
| 3 | CHI | Caleb Williams | 11-6 | $10.8M | 3.58% | 3.7% | 11.0% | Wide Open | 83 |
| 4 | HOU | C.J. Stroud | 12-5 | $11.5M | 3.83% | 8.1% | FA | Wide Open | 83 |
| 5 | SF | Brock Purdy | 12-5 | $23.7M | 7.87% | 9.4% | 16.3% | Open | 79 |
| 6 | SEA | Sam Darnold | 14-3 | $37.9M | 12.58% | 12.2% | FA | Closing | 76 |
| 7 | JAX | Trevor Lawrence | 13-4 | $24.0M | 7.97% | 16.5% | 16.4% | Open | 69 |
| 8 | PIT | Aaron Rodgers | 10-7 | $22.5M | 7.47% | FA | FA | Open | 63 |
| 9 | MIN | Kyler Murray / J.J. McCarthy | 9-8 | $7.3M | 2.41% | FA | FA | Wide Open | 62 |
| 10 | PHI | Jalen Hurts | 11-6 | $32.0M | 10.61% | 15.6% | 15.5% | Closing | 61 |
| 11 | CAR | Bryce Young | 8-9 | $12.1M | 4.01% | 8.1% | FA | Wide Open | 60 |
| 12 | LAR | Matthew Stafford | 12-5 | $48.3M | 16.02% | FA | FA | Closed | 57 |
| 13 | BUF | Josh Allen | 12-5 | $44.2M | 14.68% | 15.7% | 16.9% | Closed | 53 |
| 14 | LAC | Justin Herbert | 11-6 | $46.3M | 15.39% | 20.6% | 20.4% | Closed | 53 |
| 15 | ATL | Michael Penix Jr. / Tua Tagovailoa | 8-9 | $7.5M | 2.48% | FA | FA | Wide Open | 52 |
| 16 | NYG | Jaxon Dart | 4-13 | $3.9M | 1.28% | 1.4% | 1.5% | Wide Open | 51 |
| 17 | WAS | Jayden Daniels | 5-12 | $10.3M | 3.42% | 2.0% | 10.5% | Wide Open | 49 |
| 18 | GB | Jordan Love | 9-7-1 | $36.1M | 11.99% | 16.8% | 16.1% | Closing | 48 |
| 19 | TEN | Cam Ward | 3-14 | $11.1M | 3.69% | 4.1% | 4.4% | Wide Open | 47 |
| 20 | NO | Tyler Shough | 6-11 | $2.5M | 0.82% | 0.9% | 1.0% | Wide Open | 46 |
| 21 | LV | Kirk Cousins / Fernando Mendoza | 3-14 | $11.7M | 3.89% | 4.0% | 4.4% | Wide Open | 45 |
| 22 | DET | Jared Goff | 9-8 | $37.6M | 12.48% | 16.2% | 15.5% | Closing | 45 |
| 23 | NYJ | Geno Smith | 3-14 | $3.3M | 1.10% | FA | FA | Wide Open | 44 |
| 24 | BAL | Lamar Jackson | 8-9 | $34.4M | 11.42% | 16.1% | FA | Closing | 44 |
| 25 | IND | Daniel Jones | 8-9 | $19.2M | 6.37% | FA | FA | Open | 43 |
| 26 | ARI | Jacoby Brissett | 3-14 | $9.2M | 3.05% | FA | FA | Wide Open | 40 |
| 27 | KC | Patrick Mahomes | 6-11 | $34.7M | 11.51% | 18.1% | 17.8% | Closing | 37 |
| 28 | TB | Baker Mayfield | 8-9 | $40.0M | 13.27% | FA | FA | Closed | 29 |
| 29 | CIN | Joe Burrow | 6-11 | $48.0M | 15.94% | 17.8% | 17.8% | Closed | 25 |
| 30 | DAL | Dak Prescott | 7-9-1 | $43.5M | 14.45% | 21.7% | 22.8% | Closed | 23 |
| 31 | CLE | Deshaun Watson | 5-12 | $45.0M | 14.93% | FA | FA | Closed | 23 |
| 32 | MIA | Malik Willis | 7-10 | $73.1M $67.4M dead, not active roster | 24.26% | 17.7% | 7.6% | Closed | 23 |